Griese is the Word/ Week 4 Picks

This week, a giant sigh of relief, mixed with various levels of cheers, could be heard in living rooms, sports bars, and offices in every corner of the Chicagoland area. Rex Grossman was finally benched in favor of someone else. In this case, the someone else is Brian Griese, perhaps the more popular Bears quarterback over the past two years even though he has yet to take a regular season snap.

My only reaction to this is the declaration that it won’t be long before we’ll be calling for his head, as well. In case we might have forgotten, Brian Griese isn’t exactly the Messiah, or Tom Brady. What he might be is a second coming of Chris Chandler, the Bears QB during the Dick Juron era. Which isn’t a bad thing, really. If you don’t mind three and outs, and falling asleep during Bears games, or Bernard Berrian begging for a fade route. Just one. Because I'm pretty sure that if Griese tried to throw anything longer than 15 yds, his arm would fall off.

And I'm not just banging on Griese because he's a Wolverine. Or that his dad is one of my least favorite football announcers (second only to Brent Musberger). This guy did have a Pro-Bowl year (7 years ago), but in the preseason, he didn't exactly look spectacular. The balls he threw didn't exactly have the Grossman zip on them. He didn't exactly light up the scoreboard. So what's going to change for an offense ranked 30th in the NFL?

This is going to be the average series for the new-look Bears O: Benson, run down the middle, 2 yd. gain; Benson, run left, 1 yd. gain; Griese, 5 yd. completion to Olson; Punt. And Griese will probably throw just as many pics as Rex, and get sacked just as much, but he won’t fumble snaps, and he’ll make a 58.6 QB rating look better than Rex did, and they may be all that Lovie is looking for. But don't look for the Bears to be significantly improved.

The Bears won’t win the division. That much is clear. Not with that offense, and not with the new bevy of injuries to that once stellar D, and not with those Packers rolling. The Packers D is amazing (AJ Hawk), and Favre is playing pretty well. They’ll go 10-6 or 11-5 and lock up the NFC North. The only question that remains is will the Bears get a Wild Card berth? If not, the question becomes, will they draft a QB in the first round next year, or go after a veteran free agent? Is Jake Plummer still retired?

My week 4 picks

Last week (9-7), Overall (18-14)

HOME TEAM IN CAPS

Houston over ATLANTA

NY Jets over BUFFALO

Baltimore over CLEVELAND

DALLAS over St. Louis

DETROIT over Chicago

MIAMI over Oakland

Green Bay over MINNESOTA

Tampa Bay over CAROLINA

Seattle over SAN FRANCISCO

Pittsburgh over ARIZONA

INDIANAPOLIS over Denver

SAN DIEGO over Kansas City

Philadelphia over NY GIANTS
Game of the Week:

New England over CINCINNATI

College Realizations/NFL Week 3

After watching some college games last weekend I've noticed 3 big things:

1. The Big Ten is about 5-8 years behind the curve. After watching with joy Michigan's loss two weeks ago to Oregon, I realized that Oregon might just as well have beaten Ohio State. The Bucks had a some problems with the same type of offense and the same type of quarterback last weekend at Washington, and of course we all know how they did against a speedy spread offense and fast defense last year in the BCS Championship. Had James Laurinitis not dominated and had Locker been an experienced Junior or Senior, like Oregon's QB, as apposed to a green Freshman, the Huskies might have pulled off the upset. The Big Ten just doesn't have the speed that other schools in the SEC, Pac-10, and Oklahoma and West Virginia do. It's funny because in 2002, when OSU won the title, it was mostly to do with their defensive speed and crafty QB play. Not so much in today's game immersed in the spread offense QBs who are dual threats. The Big Ten will always look good against each other because that's who they are built to contend with. But once they leave the conference, its a different story. I don't mean to be a home conference hater, but its the truth. Right, Lloyd?

2. There is a definate top tier this year. USC, Florida, LSU, and Oklahoma are far and away the best-of-the-best, and its not even close. Did you watch USC thump a supposedly top-15 Nebraska...without even passing the ball? Did you see Florida drop 50-something on former SEC power Tennessee? How about Oklahoma destroying a Miami team that made top-25 Texas A&M look silly last night? And LSU's Bayou Bengal D is probably better than the Cincinnati Bengal D'. Two of these four will go undefeated and face off in a classic title game. My guess, USC and LSU. If LSU can beat Florida.

3. It's time Notre Dame joins the Big Ten. They would be great together. After all the years of speculation, its time they did it. Want an explination, check out this article on SI.com. Stewart Mandel says it better than I can.

Not that these three things are world-shattering or that I'm the first person to realize them. But they are interesting things to think about and discuss.

NFL
I didn't do so bad last week. Let's be honest, who could have predicted that defenseless fiasco up in Cleveland? And another game was decided by one point. Over .500 is very good, and its what I'm aiming for.
Now for my picks. (Last week 9-7/Overall 9-7)
Home teams in CAPS
BALTIMORE over Arizona
San Diego over GREEN BAY
Indianapolis over HOUSTON
Minnesota over KANSAS CITY
NEW ENGLAND over Buffalo
NY JETS over Miami
PHILADELPHIA over Detroit
PITTSBURGH over San Francisco
St. Louis over TAMPA BAY
DENVER over Jacksonville
OAKLAND over Cleveland
SEATTLE over Cincy
Carolina over ATLANTA
WASHINGTON over NY Giants
NEW ORLEANS over Tennessee
Game of the week:
CHICAGO over Dallas

your picks please...

NFL Season Preview / Week 2 Picks

Now that I have a lot more time on my hands, and now that it’s the NFL is off and running, and since I feel I should be blogging more, from now until the end of football season I will be giving you my weekly picks. This will be a good place to keep track of how well I can pick games (Chris Berman is almost always sub-.500) and will be a fun thing to write and for you to read every week. Please reply with your picks and any comments you may have to mine.

First, as every other sports website, magazine, and newspaper has done, it’s time for my season preview. Here’s my rundown of division winners, my prediction of their records, and how the playoffs and Super Bowl win pan out.

NFC, first:
East
1. Dallas COWBOYS (10-6)—This team is an enigma. They could very well go 7-9 this season, but I like the Romo to TO connection on offense. Their defense, however…
2. Philadelphia EAGLES (9-7)—Even a hobbled McNabb is better than 75% of the rest of the NFL quarterback crop. They’ll lose some games they should win, though (like last week’s against Green Bay).
3. NY GIANTS (8-8)—Their season rests on the shoulders (the injured throwing shoulder included) of “Little Manning.” Especially with that suspect, injury-plagued, D.
4. Washington REDSKINS (5-11)—Quick, name their starting quarterback. Exactly.

West
1. Seattle SEAHAWKS (12-4)—Look for this team to look a lot like that team that should’ve won a Super Bowl two years ago, now that Hasselbeck and Alexander are both 100%.
2. St. Louis RAMS (8-8)—They should be a great offensive team this year. Hopefully Steven Jackson returns to form. And that rookie Carriker will be great. They’ll be in the Wild Card race up until the end.
3. San Francisco 49ERS (7-9)—They’re still a couple of years away from the playoffs, but they’ve got some STUDS on offense (Smith, Gore, Davis) and the defensive backfield (Clements, a Buckeye by-the-way).
4. Arizona CARDINALS (6-10)—Well, they look good.

North
1. Chicago BEARS (13-3)—That defense alone will win them 10 games. Rex alone will lose them 3. Hester will win one by himself. And the other two wins, Rex will look great against bad teams (like this week against KC).
2. Green Bay PACKERS (8-8)—I really like the Packer’s D (read: AJ Hawk). And Favre still has a few fumes left in the tank.
3. Minnesota VIKINGS (7-9)—If they had a quarterback they’d be a playoff team with that D and that rookie running back.
4. Detroit LIONS (7-9)—As a Bengals fan, I just have a hard time taking a team lead by Jon Kitna seriously. But Calvin Johnson is going to be great.

South
1. New Orleans SAINTS (10-6)—Take their offense, Brees, Bush, and Co., and put it with the Bears’ defense and you’ve got a Championship team. The Saints would trade their D in a heartbeat. Sorry, Will Smith.
2. Carolina PANTHERS (9-7)—Delhomme is playing for a job at this point. But their D and Steve Smith should make up for his short-comings.
3. Atlanta FALCONS (4-12)—Joey Harrington.
4. Tampa Bay BUCCANEERS (4-12)—Garcia is old. Simms started at Texas and made it into the league because of his last name. Plummer might be better this year (retired) than last year.

Playoffs:
Rd. 1
SAINTS over PANTHERS
COWBOYS over EAGLES

Rd. 2
BEARS over SAINTS
SEAHAWKS over COWBOYS

NFC Championship
SEAHAWKS over BEARS

AFC, the more exiting conference:
East
1. New England PATRIOTS (15-1)—The whole cheating thing will have nothing to do with them dominating the league this year. They’re too experienced, too good, too well coached (even though Belichick is a sad, unhappy jerk) not to run the table. Brady to Moss, are you kidding me?
2. NY JETS (7-9)—Thomas Jones should have been more picky when he demanded a trade (read: bad O-line). And what’s with Jets fans hating on Pennington? They’ve never liked him, even though he’s a tough, gritty, QB who gives his all every down.
3. Buffalo BILLS (5-11)—They lost their best defensive player (Clements) and their best offensive player (McGahee). What’s left?
4. Miami DOLPHINS (5-11)—As much as I dislike Nick Saban, all you have to do is look at this roster and you can understand why he left. I think Trent Green still has a concussion.

West
1. San Diego CHARGERS (14-2)—I could do with out the “lights out” dance. But LT is money.
2. Denver BRONCOS (9-7)—Looks like Cutler may struggle at times this year. But, mark my words, Travis Henry will be in the top 8 in rushing yards this year.
3. Oakland RAIDERS (4-12)—Good D, Daunte Culpepper. Could be a spoiler vs. better teams.
4. Kansas City CHIEFS (3-13)—LJ may break last year’s single-season carries record. What else are they going to do with the ball?

North
1. Cincinnati BENGALS (11-5) —That defense looked like fast ball hawkers on Monday vs. the Ravens. If that’s the case, and Carson, TJ and the Johnsons are put up numbers, this could be a good year in the ‘Nati.
2. Pittsburgh STEELERS (11-5)—This is a playoff team. Ben looks great. Granted it was against the Browns.
3. Baltimore RAVENS (10-6)—I’ve never liked the Ravens and this year I think they’re overrated, especially on offense. Sit McNair, and put in Troy Smith.
4. Cleveland BROWNS (2-14)—It’s a bad sign when the only reason to watch is to see the rookie backup QB hold a clipboard.

South
1. Indianapolis COLTS (12-4)—Their defense is faster and better than last year and Peyton looks sharp and ready for another run.
2. Tennessee TITANS (8-8)—Leave it to Jeff Fisher to lead a bunch of no-names, a good running game, and Vince Young to a respectable record.
3. Jacksonville JAGUARS (7-9)— Their D is good, but can they really be overly excited about Gerrard as the QB of the future?
4. Houston TEXANS (6-10)—The Falcons are kicking themselves for trading what looks to be a pretty good young gun in Matt Shaub. And this young defense is a year or two away from being scary.

Playoffs:
Rd. 1
COLTS over RAVENS
STEELERS over BENGALS

Rd. 2
PATRIOTS over STEELERS
CHARGERS over COLTS

NFC Championship
PATRIOTS over CHARGERS

So that means my Super Bowl pick this year is…
PATRIOTS over SEAHAWKS

I just couldn’t see the Bears getting back with that monstrosity at QB, no matter how much help he has, he isn’t getting any better. And considering they had to have everything fall in their direction just to get into the Super Bowl, I don’t see it happening this year. But we’ll see. What makes the NFL so great is that someone nobody expects, like the Texans, could win it all this year.

Now for my Week 2 picks…(Home teams in CAPS)

CAROLINA over Houston
Cincy over CLEVELAND
JACKSONVILLE over Atlanta
Green Bay over NY GIANTS
PITTSBURGH over Buffalo
ST. LOUIS over San Fran.
New Orleans over TAMPA
Indy over TENNESSEE
Seattle over ARIZONA
Minnesota over DETROIT
Dallas over MIAMI
BALTIMORE over NY Jets
CHICAGO over KC
DENVER over Oakland
NEW ENGLAND over San Diego
PHILADELPHIA over Washington

Comments please.